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IPCC latest report: political summary

Sep 30, 2013
by Andrew@Reliabilityoxford.co.uk
0 Comment
Evidence from: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/27_09_13_ipccsummary.pdf The summary is labelled as a summary for policy-makers. As such it provides statements of agreed judgements made by climate scientists. It provides selected illustrative support for those judgements but not in a way that can be independently sense checked. It is hoped that the evidence reports will eventually provide that data in a suitable form. For some unexplained reason, the uncertainty in data points is provided with 90% confidence intervals when the standard for science is the 95% confidence interval. This is not a major criticism but indicates a willingness to report an apparently higher degree of certainty by up to 20 %.  Much larger uncertainties are found in the choice of model rather than how well the essentially similar models agree with each other. Chief among these choices are vertical energy flow mechanisms, which are not well modelled. In the period 1998 to 2012 global mean surface temper
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