Evidence from: liability exposure scenarios The Arium software uses official trade data to identify links between generators of risk, and via the product supply chain, the injured party. By adding liability insights, the hazard scenario can be tailored to explore the  most likely routes to exposure, i.e. a risk scenario. Sum limits and sum premium can be explicitly calculated from the insurance portfolio. The method is transparent, stress testable, reviewable and auditable. Calculations are analytical in nature. It is just algebra. The tool is ideally suited to the assessment of emerging liability risks. All you need is a scenario based on the state of knowledge. The scenario can be refined as knowledge develops. The Radar service is a great source of data for the development of scenarios. The next thing to do is supply Radar subscribers with pre-made scenarios on a number of emerging liability risks. These will be modified as and when new data emerges. Changes in exposure projections

This week sees global leaders getting together to talk about investment, market and legal mechanisms that may be applied to the political problem called climate change. It is a complex problem, made more complex by the rhetoric of belief vs.denial and self-interest vs.tribalism. Heated exchanges may be giving way to objective rationality. At the recent ABI conference there was a session on climate change, engineered to garner insurance industry support for a 2 degree pledge. Four famous promoters of the pledge took to the stage. Useful oral contributions included: Investment in the Energy Giants may have a limited shelf life, so better consider the resilience of investment income. (I noticed that no timescale was offered). Investments in other major industry players might be better placed if those players could state how much risk they were exposed to if the climate were to change as anticipated. (I wondered that of course the Officers of such firms are only obliged to declare material

Insurers are well on the way to making strategic assessments of IT-related exposures. Most have focused on malicious attack but this leaves out half of the events which could give rise to an insurable loss in traditional insurance products. Many of these losses would be correlated. Potential correlations can be identified through scenario analysis. But first you need a comprehensive picture of your policies and what triggers them. The enclosed methodology provides a systematic approach. cyber evaluation