Database

The key additional uncertainty introduced by increasing the scope of liability for environmental change arises as a result of the potential for sudden transitions in ecosystems and the value of the services they provide. If transitions and their effects could be predicted with confidence then they may be insurable. In our view, the uncertainties are currently too large. Evidence from: andrew@reliabilityoxford.co.uk The real problems are: • Pace of change, not change itself. Complex systems can be driven to the point where they become unstable and fail. All systems can be driven to the point where supply of ecosystem services cannot meet demand. The annual cost of adaptation or failing to adapt may become too high if the pace of change is too high. • Reversibility of change. Complex systems will always self stabilise. The work required to move from a new state induced by the insured to a state regarded as the right state can be complex and disproportionate. 11#1 11

Environmental Regulation has developed very significantly over the past 30 years, principally with respect to pollution prevention and, protection of valuable sites and resources such as drinking water. But biodiversity is a more generalisable concept which helps in the understanding of the “Common Good” that nature provides. Protection of this could be achieved by a combination of regulation and liability for remediation. The scope of the latter is currently unpredictable, but would initially operate through regulation and nuisance. This could change if concepts such as material interest, proximity and foreseeability are changed to suit political ends. While there is uncertainty, there is a need for insurers to engage with politicians. Evidence from: andrew@reliabilityoxford.co.uk Investment in response to adverse events could be insured, e.g. remediation of contaminated land. If this route is favoured then the price of insurance will depend very strongly on the specified quality of a

MMWR Weekly 8th December 2006 “Gastrointestinal Injuries from Magnet Ingestion in Children — United States, 2003–2006” Three cases of injury after swallowing magnets included as part of children’s toys. Autopsy in one case showed that two groups of magnets had joined across two loops of intestine, restricting blood supply to the tissues leading to sepsis. Surgery in another case found a magnet to have perforated the end of the small intestine. The editor [working for Center for Disease Control (CDC)] recommends that caregivers should keep products with magnets out of environments where children aged <6 years are playing and be aware of the unique risks if ingested.

Food Standards Agency 10th November 2006 “Dunbia NI recalls meat products” Over thirty month cattle cannot enter the food chain without first passing a BSE test. When a 54 month old cow was wrongly identified it was mixed with tissues from other animals resulting in 21 products being potentially contaminated with BSE. The products were withdrawn to be disposed of as animal by products. The news report did not say whether or not there was evidence of BSE in any of products. On the 12th of December FSA reported that an untested cow of 30 months and 10 days age had entered the food chain without being tested. The meat was supplied to a farm shop. Comment These incidents could give rise to anxiety in spite of official assurances that the risk is very low. _______ Health Protection Agency 18th January 2007 “4th case of variant CJD infection associated with blood transfusion” Diagnosis occurred nine years after receiving a blood transfusion from someone who later deve

The research demonstrates a mechanism whereby a joint injury could in principle aggravate, accelerate or cause a chronic joint disorder. Even where the injury does not directly damage the joint cartilages the proposal is that bleeding into the joint has the potential to have an irreversible damaging effect on that cartilage. Evidence from: NWD Jansen et al. Arthritis and Rheumatism (2007) Vol.56#1 p 199 – 207 “Exposure of Human Cartilage Tissue to Low Concentrations of Blood for a Short Period of Time Leads to Prolonged Cartilage Damage” The above mechanism could perhaps provide a non-psychosocial explanation for chronic neck pain following for example, whiplash neck injury. Osteoarthritis could perhaps be accelerated by such an injury. However, it is surprising that initial injury severity is not predictive of outcome after one year; if the above mechanism is valid this is what would be expected. Further detail: 6#9-10 22

In a glass house experiment, GM plants increased the soil concentration of Bt proteins but this change in soil conditions had no measureable effect on nematode or soil bacteria populations. Evidence from: BS Griffiths et al. Plant Biotechnology Journal (2007) Vol.5 p 60 – 68 “Varietal effects of eight paired lines of transgenic Bt maize and near-isogenic non- Bt maize on soil microbial and nematode community structure” Further detail: 6#9-10 21