Database

Asthma diagnosis rates in children increased very significantly in the past 20 years. The search for environmental cause has been intense. But how big could the environmental proportion of new cases be? Evidence from: G Koeppen-Schomerus et al. Archives of Diseases in Childhood. November (2001), Vol. 85 #5 p 398. In 1999 Genetics accounted for 70% of asthma diagnoses. It would be interesting and useful to know if the same proportion was still found now. If an environmental cause of asthma diagnosis inflation is found then the maximum proportion would be 30% of cases. The Radar report is available to subscribers: 1#10 13

If injury can be a cause of MS then why not a virus which causes nerve inflammation? The study sought associations between exposure to 21 different pathogens and risk of MS using discordant twin pairs. Evidence from: M Bergkvist et al. Acta Neurologica Scandinavica. November (2001) Vol.104 #5 p 262. The lack of any detectable effect from any of these pathogens suggests that if a pathogen is responsible it wasn’t one of these and, that neuro inflammation is not a prime cause either. The Radar report is available to subscribers: 1#10 12  

The International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) has published a monograph on low frequency emfs. They conclude that exposure is possibly carcinogenic to humans. The opinion arises from consistent evidence of detectable risk of leukaemia in children exposed to more then 0.4 micro Tesla time weighted average. Evidence from: IARC monographs series. In our view, this does not represent a date of knowledge on generic causation. A number of objections to the IARC conclusion are acknowledged by IARC and expert opinion more widely. The Radar report is available to subscribers: 1#10 11

There is some consensus that the risk of lung cancer posed by asbestos dust exposure is usually of the order RR = 5, that from smoking, RR= 10 and from the combination, RR = 50. This review paper suggests an alternative view, that the asbestos related risk is actually reduced by co-smoking. Evidence from: FD Liddell. Ann Occup Hyg. Jul (2001) Vol. 45(5) p 341-56. The author introduces the term: relative asbestos effect, to account for the competition between smoke and asbestos to be the first to actually cause the cancer. The Radar report is available to subscribers: 1#10 10

There was no association between lung asbestos burdens and survival times. Survival time did vary by cancer cell type. If known, cell type could assist with initial reserving. Evidence from: Neumann V, et al. Int Arch Occup Environ Health. (2001) Aug;74(6) p 383-95. Time between first known occupational exposure and diagnosis was 38 year on average. The Radar report is available to subscribers: 1#10 9

Preliminary work on distinguishing long from short prognosis following diagnosis with mesothelioma. Evidence from: Bongiovanni M, et al. Cancer. 2001 Sep 1;92(5) p 1245-50. A test which could distinguish cases into brackets such as up to 12 months and more than 24 months survical would assist with reserving. The Radar report is available to subscribers: 1#10 8